Citation
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MORI DocID: 1202729
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National Intelligence Council 16 November 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
. Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
mot: Capra eecneer abet
telligence Officer for
Africa . .
SUBJECT: Warning and Forecast Report: Sub-Saharan
. Africa (U)
At their monthly meeting on 13 November, Intelligence
Community representatives agreed that:
eo The Rwandan government continues to confront scattered
insurgent activity, border tensions with neighboring states,
and a potentially serious refugee problen.
All portions SE
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MORI DocID: 1202729
SUBJECT: Warning and Forecast Report: Sub-Saharan Africa
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- MORI DocID: 1202729
- SUBJECT: Warning and Forecast Report: Sub-Saharan Africa
Rwanda: Fighting Continues.
Led by DIA.
Three volatile issues continue
to confront the government of
President Habyarimana: the
ongoing insurgent activity of
the Rwandan Patriotic Front
(RPF); border tensions with
both Uganda and Tanzania; and
the status of Tutsi refugees
scattered throughout East and
Central Africa.
The 2,000-man Tutsi-dominated
RPF combatants continue to
operate in the northeastern
part of Rwanda in small units
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MORI DocID: 1202729
SUBJECT: Warning and Forecast Report: Sub-Saharan Africa
using hit and run tactics.
While the RPF will be able to
carry on low intensity
conflict for some time to
come, it will not have the
capability to conduct a
country-wide insurgency. The
9,000-man Rwandan Armed
Forces~-including new
recruits--continues to receive
arms, ammunition, and training
from a variety of sources and
while its logistical
capability remains good, lack
of training and effective
leadership will greatly hinder
its ability to defeat the RPF.
Tensions between Kigali and
Kampala will also persist,
focusing on perceived
assistance to the rebels
through porous borders. There
will also be some strain with
other states in the region
over the larger issue of the
potential repatriation of
exiled Tutsis back to Rwanda.
This protracted insurgency
will magnify Rwanda’s already
serious problems. Weakened by
a worsening economy and
factionalism among the
majority Hutus, Habyarimana is
now under serious challenge
from Hutu hardliners seeking
reprisals against Tutsis.
While there are ongoing
attempts at negotiations, it
is unlikely these issues will
be resolved soon. ..
Collection Notes.
